ETS2 changes the rules of the game for carbon in new sectors

The energy transition takes a new step with the arrival of ETS2, the new European emissions trading market that will now also affect sectors such as construction, transport and small industry. A system that will come into force in 2027 and will require thousands of companies to rethink their energy and operational models. At Edison Next, we have analyzed this new regulatory framework in detail, because it represents a before and after in the way carbon is understood and managed. And, above all, because it opens up a strategic opportunity for those companies, organizations and institutions that want to get ahead of the change and turn sustainability into a competitive advantage. Unlike ETS1, where many sectors receive free emission allowances, ETS2 will have no free allocations. The carbon “tax” will be incorporated directly into the price of fossil fuels, through their distributors, who will be required to surrender emission allowances equivalent to their sales volume. However, this cost will be passed on to the end consumer — that is, to the companies and citizens who consume those fuels. As mentioned, the system will launch in 2027, with an optional pilot phase in 2025 and a transitional phase in 2026. From that point onwards, the price of CO₂ will be set by the market, as is the case with ETS1. Estimates suggest that the price per tonne of CO₂ could reach €150/tCO₂ by 2030, which will generate a significant additional cost for companies with high thermal energy consumption. This additional cost will depend primarily on the type of fuel used and its associated emission factor. For example, 1 MWh of natural gas emits approximately 0.2 tCO₂, which could represent an extra cost of up to €30/MWh solely for carbon. In the case of other fuels with higher emission factors, the impact would be even greater. This scenario makes decarbonization an economic necessity, not just an environmental one. The impact of ETS2 will be far-reaching. It will directly affect the thermal consumption of a large number of processes in the food, textile, pharmaceutical, paper and plastics industries, to name just a few. It will also have a direct effect on the energy consumption of offices, hotels, hospitals and public buildings. In other words, any organization that uses fossil fuels for heating and cooling, thermal processes or transport needs to start preparing. The key will lie in efficiency — that is, reducing consumption, electrifying processes, installing monitoring technologies such as BMS, recovering residual heat, integrating heat pumps or electric boilers, optimizing schedules and contracted power, and so on. Everything that contributes to reducing emissions will also reduce the costs associated with the new carbon price. At Edison Next, as energy efficiency experts, we are already helping companies map out roadmaps to navigate this new landscape. We do so by combining a technical approach — through energy efficiency, digitalization, electrification or thermal recovery projects — with support that allows savings to be monetized through mechanisms such as Energy Saving Certificates (CAEs). Furthermore, thanks to our multisectoral presence and experience, we are in a unique position to offer a comprehensive view of the implications of ETS2 and design tailored solutions. ETS2 is not a threat — it is an opportunity. An opportunity to transform the energy model of sectors that until now have been outside the radar of the most ambitious climate policies. An opportunity for companies, local governments, public buildings and transport fleets to anticipate the impact of the carbon price and turn their emissions into a lever for efficiency and transformation. At Edison Next, we believe that the decisions we make today will define the competitiveness of tomorrow. That is why we continue, and will continue, to bet on innovation, technology and expertise to support our clients through this new phase of the energy transition.