ETS2 changes the rules of the game for carbon in new sectors

The energy transition takes a new step with the arrival of ETS2, the new European emissions trading market that will now also affect sectors such as construction, transport, and small industry. This system will come into force in 2027 and will force thousands of companies to rethink their energy and operational model. At Edison Next, we have analyzed this new regulatory framework in detail, because it represents a before and after in how carbon is understood and managed. And, above all, because it opens a strategic opportunity for those companies, organizations, and institutions that want to get ahead of the change and turn sustainability into a competitive advantage. Unlike ETS1, where many sectors receive free emission allowances, in ETS2 there will be no free allocations. The carbon “tax” will be incorporated directly into the price of fossil fuels, through their distributors, who must surrender emission allowances equivalent to the volume of their sales. However, this cost will be passed on to the end consumer, that is, to the companies and citizens who consume those fuels. As we have mentioned, the system will start in 2027, with an optional pilot phase in 2025 and a transition phase in 2026. From then on, the CO₂ price will be set by the market, as occurs in ETS1. Estimates suggest that the price per ton of CO₂ could reach €150/tCO₂ by 2030, which will generate a significant additional cost for companies with intensive thermal consumption. This additional cost will depend mainly on the type of fuel used and the associated emission factor. For example, 1 MWh of natural gas emits approximately 0.2 tCO₂, which could mean an additional cost of up to €30/MWh solely due to the carbon concept. In the case of other fuels with higher emission factors, the impact would be even greater. This scenario makes decarbonization an economic necessity, not just an environmental one. The impact of ETS2 will be cross-cutting. It will fully affect the thermal consumption of a large number of processes in the food, textile, pharmaceutical, paper, and plastic industries, to name just a few. It will also have a direct effect on the energy consumption of offices, hotels, hospitals, and public buildings. In other words, any organization that uses fossil fuels for heating, cooling, thermal processes, or transport must start preparing. The key will be efficiency. That is, reducing consumption, electrifying processes, installing monitoring technologies such as BMS, recovering waste heat, integrating heat pumps or electric boilers, optimizing schedules and contracted power, etc. Anything that helps reduce emissions will also reduce the expense associated with the new carbon price. At Edison Next, as experts in energy efficiency, we are already helping companies chart roadmaps to face this new scenario. We do this by combining a technical approach (through energy efficiency, digitalization, electrification, or heat recovery projects) with support that allows savings to be monetized through mechanisms such as Energy Savings Certificates (CAEs). Furthermore, thanks to our multi-sector presence and our experience, we are in a unique position to offer a complete view of the implications of ETS2 and design tailored solutions. ETS2 is not a threat; it is an opportunity. An opportunity to transform the energy model of sectors that until now were off the radar of the most ambitious climate policies. An opportunity for companies, municipalities, public buildings, and transport fleets to anticipate the impact of the carbon price and turn their emissions into a lever for efficiency and transformation. At Edison Next, we believe that the decisions we make today will shape tomorrow’s competitiveness. That is why we continue and will continue to bet on innovation, technology, and experience to accompany our clients in this new stage of the energy transition.